Abstract            Volume:13  Issue-8  Year-2025         Original Research Articles

Online ISSN : 2347 - 3215 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcret@gmail.com

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in the statistical patterns of the climate system, including changes in global temperature and rainfall, driven by both human activities and natural processes. Meteorological drought refers to a prolonged period of significantly below-average precipitation, compared to the typical climate norms of a region. Drought has been a significant event with far-reaching effects across agriculture, society, the economy, and the environment. Gaining insight into how climate change influences the frequency, duration, and intensity of meteorological droughts remains a critical challenge. This study conducted a coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for Africa using CMIP5-based GCM-RCM ensembles to statistically refine climate change scenarios. It assessed the impact of climate change on meteorological drought under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, aiming to support early warning systems and guide adaptation strategies. Daily temperature and precipitation data over a 30-year overlap were bias-corrected using CMhyd, while DrinC tools characterized drought conditions. The HBV Light model was calibrated (1991–2010) and validated (2011–2020), showing strong performance (calibration: R² = 0.88, NSE = 0.77; validation: R² = 0.86, NSE = 0.83). Simulations revealed a significant decline in mean annual discharge under both scenarios, with total flow reductions of 1.6–3.5% and 4.6–4.9%. Notably, Belg season flows increased by ~39–40% in the 2020s and ~38–39% in the 2050s. These changes align with shifts in precipitation patterns. To address these impacts, communities should adopt soil and water conservation measures, plant drought-tolerant crops and trees, and implement water harvesting systems. Future research should incorporate wet day frequency to enhance drought prediction accuracy under changing climate conditions.

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