Abstract            Volume:12  Issue-12  Year-2024         Original Research Articles

Online ISSN : 2347 - 3215 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcret@gmail.com

The present study applied ARIMA model for forecasting of Cashew kernel prices in Delhi market of India. The ARIMA (0 1 1) model was found to be good fit. The parameter estimates for the selected ARIMA model were RSquare (90.40 per cent), RMSE (29.512), MAPE (3.933) and BIC (6.867). The goodness of fit of this model was judged by the highest RSquare and the least RMSE, MAPE and BIC. The forecast prices predicted through ARIMA model were quite closer to real time prices. The forecasts of monthly whole sale prices of Cashew Kernel (Rs/Kg) are exhibiting slight variation and ranging from Rs. 740 to Rs. 797 for the period January 2023 to December 2023 and ranging from Rs 760 to Rs 818 per Kg for the period from January 2024 to December 2024. The forecasted values exhibited an increasing trend of prices in the next ensuing months. The price deviation ranges from a minimum of -0.39 per cent to a maximum of -7.68 per cent for ARIMA model and confirmed its forecast accuracy. Accurate price forecasting will be beneficial to farmers, Cashew industry, various market stakeholders and Govt of India.

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